The Vibes...They are a-Changin'...maybe

Economist/writer Tyler Cowen wrote a few thoughts on the changing sentiment towards former President Trump and his 2024 presidential candidacy. The gist of it is that people are feeling better about him now than they once did. And while I think it’s very possible that the vibe surge he’s referring to is overstated or at least short lived, as vibe surges tend to be, it’s clearly true that things are quite different today than they were nine years ago when then candidate Trump erupted onto the political scene. So I thought it might be useful to revisit a few things I once believed and see if I wouldn’t update my priors.

My criticism of 2016 candidate Trump was focused on three things. You’ll note they’re not political in nature. He ran as a Republican candidate. I would assume that he has a conservative platform. I don’t lose sleep over the ebb and flow of conservative v. liberal tugs of war. I'm generally more focused on things that represent threats to the system in ways that yield systemically bad governance. In 2015 I had some big criticisms.

My first criticism of then candidate Trump was that he represented a negative upsetting of political norms. What many of us have learned over the last decade (some of us already knew), was that the Executive Branch of the United States Federal Government is much more limited by political norms than it is by hard laws or regulation. In many instances, the President can do just about anything he or she wants. It’s not clear whether or not they can be charged with a crime at all. What they say to foreign heads of state is entirely up to them. How they classify information is entirely their prerogative. They have a literal get out of jail card for every federal crime for whoever they want. And, as we’ve learned, an American President can force a Constitutional crisis by pressuring (standing outside with an angry mob) his Vice President to not certify the results of an election. There’s little written down anywhere to stop any of it.

For centuries, the American people have established a deep sense of trust that the President will not just do whatever he or she wants; that the boundaries of the office were dictated by something more metaphysical than written laws. And while part of the appeal of candidate Trump was that he would do away with some of the political norms that have turned Washington DC from the City on a Hill into a swamp, my larger concern was that in 40 years or so in the public eye, candidate Trump hadn’t yielded to any norms at all. And he wasn’t really likely to start once elected President. And this was bad.

So where do we stand on this criticism? I’d say January 6th proves out that I was probably on to something. And while it’s possible it just doesn’t end up mattering because he eventually left the White House and it was all just noise, he’s about to be back in it. So we’ll see just what four more years does to the erosion of norms and the social contract the American people share with the White House. If you believe lower trust in the Office is great for America, you are likely warped by politics. Chalk one up for 2015 me.

My second criticism is that his personal frailties would simply make it too easy for political enemies to embroil him in scandal. Which of course they have. It’s been a circus. Some of it has been political nonsense. Some of it is uniquely Trump in a way that adds no value to his political credibility as a conservative. No matter how cynical one is about politicians, it’s beyond the realm of the expected. And the result is that we’re very likely going to have a convicted felon in office. If you believe that’s great for America, you are likely warped by politics. Chalk one up more up for 2015 me.

Lastly, I thought, based on decades of experience watching businessman Trump crash businesses and run away from them in my home town of Atlantic City, that he didn’t have the personal constitution to commit to what it took to lead something bigger than himself. I believed he really wasn’t all in but instead wandered into political success despite himself and was more likely to cut and run than he was to nail himself to the floor in the center of the political arena and fight for what his constituents sent him there to fight for.

In this, I was wrong. Quite wrong. For the better part of a decade, which is a long time to be the head of a political party in America, Donald Trump has been a loyal representative of his base. He has been as consistent as any politician ever is on issues. And he has shown that if faced with the alternative of living with a legacy of being a one-term loser, he is as resilient a public figure as we’ve ever seen. And that is saying something deeply positive about him. If your political opponents long for a day when you just aren’t there any more to beat them because they know you won’t ever stop while you are, then you are a wildly successful and resolute politician. And I was very wrong about the potential for that in candidate Trump in 2015.

So, that’s it. I had three criticisms. Now I have two, neither of which has created a clear path for the ruin of America. At least not yet. Which probably means Tyler is on to something. Especially if we consider how electorates normalize often sensational happenings through the ever healing passage of time. January 6th and the pandemic feel like 20 years ago. Not three. None of this changes my mind materially. But I’m sure for some it might and has. 

One other point that is changing many minds including mine. If one believes, as it has proven out through history from Julius Cesar to George Washington to Napoleon and Lincoln and FDR and Hitler and Stalin and Mao…and others…that the individual leader actually matters, then what’s true of a flawed candidate like Donald Trump is also true of a candidate like 81 year old President Biden. And all that I’ve said about Donald Trump and his impact on norms and the trust in the office can be said about the con that the current administration would be trying to pull off in saying that President Biden is fit to lead the most powerful country the world has ever seen for four more years. And so something has got to give. If you believe otherwise, you’ve likely been warped by politics.